Ecological Systems and Devices Annotation << Back MODELING THE ANNUAL COURSE OF THE MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE CASPIAN SEA SHELF ECOSYSTEM USING FIELD OBSERVATIONS N.V. Solovjeva The paper proposes a method for modeling the main components of the Caspian shelf ecosystem, including phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, concentrations of dissolved and suspended organic matter, concentrations of biogenic nitrogen and phosphorus compounds. Numerical simulations carried out with the model allow us to assess the role of individual environmental parameters and external factors, including anthropogenic ones, affecting the state of the shelf ecosystem. This turns out to be important for assessing the consequences of oil developments on the Caspian shelf and as a consequence for assessing environmental risk. Comparative analysis of calculation results with in situ observations, as well as the pattern of circulation of water masses, ensuring delivery of nutrients from deep layers of the sea along the external border of the shelf, allows to make a conclusion about the adequacy of the model to the real object of study and opens the possibility of forecasting the effects of resource development on the shelf. Keywords: shelf ecosystem; mathematical modeling; numerical experiments; anthropogenic impact. DOI: 10.25791/esip.08.2020.1174 Pp. 45-55.