Ecological Systems and Devices Annotation << Back THE MATRIX APPROACH TO ANALYSE THE ECOSYSTEMS DYNAMICS V.A. Svetlosanov V.N. Kudin Matrix approach is used to study the dynamics of ecosystems based on existing impacts on natural systems. The methods of forecasting the development of areas of natural ecosystems over time is suggested. The case where the convergence of the process to a steady state more rapidly changing external conditions. It is shown that in this case the final distribution of the ecosystems depends on the matrix of transition probabilities at the last moment (and does not depend on the initial state and the intermediate time points). Based on the theory of matrices the distribution of natural ecosystems by area, depending on the factors: the speed and change elements of the matrix, the convergence rate and duration of the process. A numerical model example of a calculation of the distribution area for the three ecosystems is done. It was concluded that using a matrix approach we can approximate calculations about what the person must control to keep the harmony between man and the environment. Key words: stochastic model; Markov Сhain; natural ecosystems; matrix approach; forecast of the development. Contacts: E-mail: vsvetlos@mail.ru E-mail: kudin_vn@mail.ru Pp. 30-33.