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Ecological Systems and Devices

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APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING TO THE PROBLEMS OF AIR POLLUTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL CITY
E.D. Konstantinova, T.A. Maslakova, Yu.V. Shalaumova

A review of methods for assessing the spatial air pollution in relation to conditions of an industrial city is provided. In the major cities at present a considerable share of total emissions in the atmosphere are motor vehicle emissions; for example, in Yekaterinburg – about 90 %. The remaining 10 % is the share of industrial enterprises and enterprises producing electricity and heat. We conducted a study of the effect of air pollution on the health of children of preschool age living the two industrial cities of the Sverdlovsk region (Kamensk-Uralsky and Yekaterinburg). The diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular systems were selected as the children health indicators. We determined that the chance preschooler get into a group of sickly children in the contaminated area of Kamensk-Uralsky more than twice that the rate in the conventionally clean area of the city. The difference is statistically signifi cant (p<0,05). The value of odds ratio is 2,4 with 95 % confi dence interval 1,6...3,7 is defined. We determined a statistically signifi cant infl uence of impact of vehicle emissions near the area of children`s pre-school institutions on the prevalence of abnormalities of the upper airway in preschool children of Yekaterinburg. The incidence of pathologies among children having a conditionally high road transport load is in 1,7 times higher than in children with conditionally low load. Statistically and clinically signifi cant effect of the impact of road transport loads related to the child`s place of residence was not found. The main factor affecting the incidence of cardiovascular diseases is air pollution too. Results of the study can be used for management decision-making in public health and urban planning area (the location of residential areas, road building).
Keywords: air pollution; vehicle emissions; methods for evaluating the spatial distribution of contamination; pathology of the respiratory system.

Contacts: E-mail: K_konst@ecko.uran.ru, E-mail: maslakova1977@yandex.ru, E-mail: iie@ecko.uran.ru

Pp. 30-38.

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