Ecological Systems and Devices Annotation << Back MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FOR SHELF ECOSYSTEMS UNDER INTENSIVE ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT N.V. Solovjeva The paper proposes a method of mathematical modeling of environmental risk for shelf ecosystems in the conditions of intensive anthropogenic impact consistently solving the problem of assessing environmental risk, the probability and scale of accidents and normal operating conditions of oil and gas complexes. The method is based on dynamic models of the ecosystem state and probabilistic eco-screening risk assessments, which makes it possible to obtain answers to questions about the fundamental admissibility of accidents of certain scales. The results obtained can serve as a basis for classification of types of accidents into acceptable and unacceptable and agree on redistribution of economic investments in ensuring environmental safety of shelf development. Keywords: Mathematical modelling; ecological system; shelf; environmental risk; environmental and economic requirements. DOI: 10.25791/esip.04.2019.569 Contacts: E-mail: soloceanic@yandex.ru Pp. 16-25.