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Ecological Systems and Devices

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ON RISK ASSESSMENT AND DECISION MAKING IN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
V.F. Krapivin, F.A. Mkrtchyan

A decision on the level of potential risk of possible change in the environment can be made on the basis of analysis of prehistory of such events and using the methods of prediction of natural events. As a rule, methods of assessing the risk is based on statistical processing of data on parameters of the processes whose interaction can initiate undesirable changes in the environmental characteristics. Decision making tool is developed basing on the classical and sequential procedures. Statistical decision model assumes the continuously calculation of the choosen criterion until it is satisfi ed. It is supposed that studied process is assessed on the base of specific indica-tor and a set of its values is formed from different information sources. This article discusses the issues of risk assessment in the monitoring mode, projected risks of global changes, monitoring and forecasting of natural disasters, explain and assess the application of the GIMS-technology(GIMS=GIS+Model) [1…6], method to the this tasks.
Keywords: risk assessment; environmental monitoring; decision making; indicator; natural disasters.


DOI: 10.25791/esip.10.2021.1255

Pp. 20-35.

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