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Ecological Systems and Devices

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Errors in Avalanche Danger Assessing and Avalanche Site Morphometry
Chernous P.A., Bobrova D.A.

There are many methods for assessing the avalanche hazard of areas. All of them are either completely empirical or contain
empirical parameters. The reliability of their use is associated with the physical and geographical conditions for which they were
created. There are no mandatory requirements for assessing the accuracy of hazardous avalanche characteristics in regulatory
documents governing engineering surveys in avalanche-prone areas. The paper analyzes the accuracy of assessing avalanche
characteristics using topographic models. Errors associated with the choice of avalanche path, map scales used in developing
models, determining model parameters, measurements, and some other factors are assessed. It is shown that, taking into account
all possible errors, relative errors in determining the coeffi cient of total resistance to avalanche movement can exceed 20 %, which,
with its small values and certain avalanche movement profi les, can lead to errors of hundreds meters in determining the range of
an avalanche runout and large errors in determining its speed and impact pressure. To reduce errors, at least a uniform defi nition
of the terrain parameters used in constructing the model and its operation is required. The topographic model cannot be used to
determine the probability of various throwing distances, velocities and impact pressures of avalanches. Regulatory documents
governing the assessment of avalanche hazard during engineering surveys for construction in avalanche-prone areas need to be
updated.
Keywords: avalanches, occurrence, movement, characteristics, assessment methods, accuracy, causes of errors.


DOI: 10.25791/esip.8.2024.1467

Pp. 56-62.

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