Ecological Systems and Devices Annotation << Back Markov models of infection spreads Kyravsky M.L. The results of modeling infection spreads with the aid of Markov random processes are presented. Analysis of change sources during infection spread is carried out by means of identification of such characteristics as transition flow rates between either illness stages or infection levels. Two model variants are considered: with the stages corresponding to illness stages and with the stages corresponding to the percentage of ill persons in a population. For the first model, the statistical Pearson criterion is applied to estimate goodness-of-fit between forecast and observations. The same criterion is used to select the best model variant. Different approaches to solve the problem in question are compared.